Simulating NFL Win Probabilityseries
I developed a simulation-based win probability model for football.
Technical writing on statistics - side projects, techniques, and observations on navigating uncertainty
Start Here
A few pieces worth reading first.
Watermarking runif
I breakdown how to (invisibly) watermark a generative process
Pokemon Individual Recourse
Or how to be the most effective Pokemon trainer
Assessing Distributions with SIMEX
Noisy observations bias a whole distribution’s tails; SIMEX is an approach for correcting this
Permutation Feature Importance Doesn't Make Sense
It gives arbitrary results when faced with dependent data